Criciuma 1–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Criciuma

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

11/19/2016

Serie B · Round 37Estadio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Criciuma52%

×Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.74

Criciuma

1.39

Vasco DA Gama

0.74

Criciuma creates 88% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 43 away

1.37

creates per match

0.84

0.64

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Vasco DA Gama

0.84

allows per match

Criciuma

0.64

Vasco DA Gama

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

80%

Criciuma or Vasco DA Gama

72%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

48%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

26%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

75%

Criciuma 2+ goals

40%

Criciuma 3+ goals

16%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

52%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

17%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

72%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Criciuma defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Criciuma scores more

52%

level

28%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

20%

Criciuma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff