Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Fábio Gomes 86'

Nenê 74'

Hygor 35'

10/22/2022

Serie B · Round 36Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vasco DA Gama47%

×Draw28%

Criciuma25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.90

Vasco DA Gama

1.36

Criciuma

0.90

Vasco DA Gama creates 51% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 88 away

1.58

creates per match

0.89

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Criciuma

0.89

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.91

Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

75%

Vasco DA Gama or Criciuma

72%

Draw or Criciuma

53%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

23%

Criciuma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

74%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

39%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

16%

Criciuma 1+ goals

59%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

66%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.58 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Criciuma attack 0.89 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

47%

level

28%

Criciuma scores more

25%

Vasco DA Gama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Fellipe Mateus

Criciuma · M

7.3

Match Events

31'

Helder Santos

35'

Hygor↳ Fellipe Mateus

46'

Bruno Tubarão← Léo Matos

46'

C. Palacios← Yuri Lara

49'

Rayan

50'

Italo Melo

58'

Arilson← Ítalo

61'

Nenê← Alex Teixeira

61'

Fábio Gomes← Marlon Gomes

70'

Gabriel Pec← Eguinaldo

74'

Nenê↳ Edimar

79'

Carlos Palacios

79'

Edimar

79'

Cristovam

83'

Thiago Alagoano← Rômulo

83'

Caio Dantas← Lohan

86'

Fábio Gomes↳ Gabriel Pec

87'

Fábio Gomes

87'

Lucas Poletto← Marcos Serrato

87'

Marcelo Hermes← Hélder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoCriciuma

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots12

5Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target5

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

370Total Passes350

277Accurate Passes247

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0