Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Boavista SC: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boavista SC

Raniel 55'

Wandinho 84'

1/30/2022

League #624 · Championship - 2Estádio Vasco da Gama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vasco DA Gama63%

×Draw24%

Boavista SC13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchBoavista SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.58

Vasco DA Gama

1.62

Boavista SC

0.58

Vasco DA Gama creates 179% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

0.56

0.60

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.80

Boavista SC

0.56

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.60

Boavista SC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Boavista SC →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

87%

Vasco DA Gama or Boavista SC

76%

Draw or Boavista SC

37%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

35%

Boavista SC wins by 2+

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

80%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

48%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

22%

Boavista SC 1+ goals

44%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

12%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

83%

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Boavista SC away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.80 + Boavista SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Boavista SC attack 0.56 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

63%

level

24%

Boavista SC scores more

13%

Vasco DA Gama at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

35'

40'

55'

56'

65'

Miguel← Bull

65'

Ryan← Marquinho

65'

Wandinho← Marquinhos

71'

Getúlio← Yuri

71'

Matheus Barbosa← Bruno Nazário

78'

78'

78'

81'

83'

84'

90+1'

90+5'

90'

Luiz Felipe← Wellington Silva

Vasco

Boavista

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Raniel

▼

Pec

Manager: Zé Ricardo

71'▲Getúlio←▼Yuri

71'▲Matheus Barbosa←▼Bruno Nazário

78'▲Isaque←▼Gabriel Pec

78'▲M. Galarza←▼Juninho

83'▲Figueiredo←▼Raniel

Vasco DA Gama substitutes

GetúlioBarbosaIsaqueGalarzaFigueiredoMatosHallsSánchezCangáLaranjeiraMTRiquelme

Manager: Leandrão

65'▲Miguel←▼Bull

65'▲Ryan←▼Marquinho

65'▲Wandinho←▼Marquinhos

78'▲Berê←▼Gabriel Ramos

90'▲Luiz Felipe←▼Wellington Silva

Boavista SC substitutes

MiguelRyanWandinhoBerêFelipeAcevedoAryCaíqueLustosaPatrickSheldon