Boavista SC 0–3 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Boavista SC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vasco DA Gama

Andres Gomez 69'

J. Rodriguez 65', 45'

1/25/2026

League #624 · Round 4Estadio Elcyr Resende de Mendonca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boavista SC31%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boavista SCExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.32

Boavista SC

1.10

Vasco DA Gama

1.32

Vasco DA Gama creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Boavista SC

1.20

Vasco DA Gama

1.25

allows per match

Boavista SC

1.40

Vasco DA Gama

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw

58%

Boavista SC or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

69%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+

12%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals

67%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

30%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

10%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

73%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

38%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

43%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 1.20 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.25 + Boavista SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boavista SC scores more

31%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

42%

Vasco DA Gama at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Rodriguez

Vasco DA Gama · D

9.5

Match Events

45'

J. Rodriguez

46'

Sandrinho← Bere

46'

Joao Vitor← Lucas Piton

47'

JP

60'

Thiago Mendes← JP

61'

Sandrinho

65'

J. Rodriguez↳ J. Rojas

69'

Andres Gomez↳ J. Rojas

70'

Bruno Jesus← Guilherme Lacerda

70'

Kadu← Leandrinho

72'

Igor Franca← Cesinha

72'

Guilherme Estrella← GB

72'

David← Andres Gomez

75'

Adson← Tche Tche

77'

Khawhan← Fellipinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoavistaVasco

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots14

3Corners2

17Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots14

5On Target5

7Off Target6

2Blocked3

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

319Total Passes655

264Accurate Passes598

83%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1