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Boavista SC vs Vasco DA Gama — League #624 2026

Boavista SC
Boavista SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Zé Vitor 21'
Walace 71'
1/19/2025League #624League #624 · Championship - 3Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boavista SC31%
×Draw28%
Vasco DA Gama41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista SC
1.08
Vasco DA Gama
1.27

Vasco DA Gama creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Boavista SC
1.17
Vasco DA Gama
1.20

allows per match

Boavista SC
1.33
Vasco DA Gama
1.00

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw
59%
Boavista SC or Vasco DA Gama
72%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
69%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+
12%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals
66%
Boavista SC 2+ goals
29%
Boavista SC 3+ goals
10%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
72%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
36%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)
44%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 1.17 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.20 + Boavista SC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boavista SC scores more
31%
level
28%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
41%

Vasco DA Gama at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
WalaceVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · D
8.2

Match Events

21'
Zé Vitor↳ Caetano
38'
Raí
46'
Walace← Victor Luís
46'
J. Sforza← Serginho
46'
J. Rodríguez← Paulo Henrique
68'
Riquelme← J. Meneses
71'
Walace↳ Hugo Moura
73'
Gabriel Conceição← Zé Vitor
73'
Fellipe Resende← Caetano
75'
Juan Sforza
80'
Erick Flores← Raí
80'
William Oliveira← Marthã
81'
Andrey← M. Dominguez
83'
Abner Vinícius← Matheus Alessandro
90+2'
Xandão
90+5'
Souza

Possession

30%Boavista

Shots

4Boavista

Pass accuracy

48%Boavista

Statistics

BoavistaVasco
Overview
30%Possession70%
4Total Shots11
0.33Expected Goals (xG)0.83
2Corners11
15Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots11
1On Target2
2Off Target6
1Blocked3
2Inside Box5
2Outside Box6
Passing
30%Possession70%
223Total Passes498
172Accurate Passes422
77%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

League #624: Boavista SC 1–1 Vasco DA Gama

Boavista SC and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in League #624 on January 19, 2025.

Goals: Zé Vitor (21'), Walace (71').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça in Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro.