Vasby United vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Vasby United35%
IFK Goteborg39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 23 home / 128 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vasby United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vasby United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches
IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vasby United attack 1.13 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32
IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Vasby United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
IFK Goteborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
AIK Stockholm
IFK Norrkoping
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Ostersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FFIFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Vasby United host IFK Goteborg on Sunday, 31 March 2019 at 15:30. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Vasby United 3 – 1 IFK Goteborg
Vasby United beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 in Allsvenskan on March 31, 2019.
Goals: D. Avdić (29'), O. Nnamani (51'), R. Söder (84'), A. Nalic (90+1').
IFK Goteborg controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 15.
The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.