IFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasby United: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vasby United

R. Söder 38'

7/21/2019

Allsvenskan · Round 16Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

IFK Goteborg57%

×Draw24%

Vasby United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.85

IFK Goteborg

1.68

Vasby United

0.85

IFK Goteborg creates 98% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

0.50

1.20

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.29

Vasby United

0.50

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.20

Vasby United

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

81%

IFK Goteborg or Vasby United

76%

Draw or Vasby United

43%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

31%

Vasby United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

81%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

50%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

24%

Vasby United 1+ goals

57%

Vasby United 2+ goals

21%

Vasby United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

75%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Vasby United away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Vasby United defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vasby United attack 0.50 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

57%

level

24%

Vasby United scores more

19%

IFK Goteborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

K. Da Graca

IFK Goteborg · D

7.8

Match Events

13'

Gustav Jarl

38'

R. Söder↳ G. Kharaishvili

44'

44'

61'

75'

76'

A. Affane← V. Wernersson

86'

86'

86'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKVasby

Overview

69%Possession31%

11Total Shots2

6Corners2

14Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots2

3On Target0

7Off Target1

1Blocked1

8Inside Box1

3Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

724Total Passes304

645Accurate Passes220

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2