Vasby United 0–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Vasby United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

8/19/2016

Superettan · Round 20Skytteholms IP (Solna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Vasby United52%

×Draw25%

Dalkurd FF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Vasby United

1.61

Dalkurd FF

0.97

Vasby United creates 66% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

1.55

creates per match

0.98

0.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vasby United

1.55

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

Vasby United

0.97

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

77%

Vasby United or Dalkurd FF

75%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

48%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

28%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

80%

Vasby United 2+ goals

48%

Vasby United 3+ goals

22%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

62%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

25%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

70%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.55 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Vasby United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vasby United scores more

52%

level

25%

Dalkurd FF scores more

23%

Vasby United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff