AFC Eskilstuna 0–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

7/30/2022

Superettan · Round 16Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna52%

×Draw25%

Dalkurd FF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

AFC Eskilstuna

1.61

Dalkurd FF

0.97

AFC Eskilstuna creates 66% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

1.55

creates per match

0.98

0.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.55

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.97

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

77%

AFC Eskilstuna or Dalkurd FF

75%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

48%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

28%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

80%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

48%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

22%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

62%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

25%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

70%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

52%

level

25%

Dalkurd FF scores more

23%

AFC Eskilstuna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff