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Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
6/23/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 2Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF45%
×Draw25%
AFC Eskilstuna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.56
AFC Eskilstuna
1.22

Dalkurd FF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
AFC Eskilstuna
1.00

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
AFC Eskilstuna
1.60

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
70%
Dalkurd FF or AFC Eskilstuna
75%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
55%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
23%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
79%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
46%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
21%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
70%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
34%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
60%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
45%
level
25%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
30%

Dalkurd FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 5–0 AFC Eskilstuna

Dalkurd FF beat AFC Eskilstuna 5-0 in Superettan on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.