Varzim 1–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Varzim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP B

Cláudio Araújo 72' (pen)

Flávio Gonçalves 60'

3/9/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 5Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Varzim45%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Varzim

1.39

Sporting CP B

1.03

Varzim creates 35% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

1.52

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Varzim

1.52

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Varzim

0.92

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

72%

Varzim or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

55%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

22%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

75%

Varzim 2+ goals

40%

Varzim 3+ goals

16%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

64%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

28%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

62%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Varzim scores more

45%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

28%

Varzim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

C. Araujo

60'

Flávio Gonçalves

66'

Kauã Oliveira← Manuel Mendonça

66'

Luís Gomes← Flávio Gonçalves

68'

Miguel Rebelo← Chicão

68'

Rodrigo Freitas← Gonçalo Pimenta

72'

Cláudio AraújoPenalty

82'

Nuno Pereira← M. Moshood

82'

Rodrigo Marquês← Rafael Nel

82'

Lucas Anjos← Afonso Moreira

83'

J. Muniz

87'

Rodrigo Rego← Zé Oliveira

87'

Hircane Graça← Cláudio Araújo

Varzim

Sporting

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Araújo

Gomes

▼

Moshood

Manager: Vítor Paneira

68'▲Miguel Rebelo←▼Chicão

68'▲Rodrigo Freitas←▼Gonçalo Pimenta

82'▲Nuno Pereira←▼M. Moshood

87'▲Rodrigo Rego←▼Zé Oliveira

87'▲Hircane Graça←▼Cláudio Araújo

Varzim substitutes

RebeloFreitasPereiraRegoGraça

Manager: João Pereira

66'▲Kauã Oliveira←▼Manuel Mendonça

66'▲Luís Gomes←▼Flávio Gonçalves

82'▲Rodrigo Marquês←▼Rafael Nel

82'▲Lucas Anjos←▼Afonso Moreira

Sporting CP B substitutes

OliveiraGomesMarquêsAnjos

Liga 3: Varzim 1–1 Sporting CP B

Varzim and Sporting CP B drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on March 9, 2025.

Goals: Flávio Gonçalves (60'), Cláudio Araújo (72' pen).

The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.

Varzim vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Varzim 1–1 Sporting CP B