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Varzim vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Varzim
Varzim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Nelsinho 84' (pen)
Estrela 22'
4/29/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 36Estádio Varzim Sport Club (Póvoa de Varzim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Varzim38%
×Draw30%
Sporting CP B33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.12
Sporting CP B
1.02

Varzim creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 26 away

creates per match

Varzim
0.89
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Varzim
1.09
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
67%
Varzim or Sporting CP B
70%
Draw or Sporting CP B
62%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
15%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
67%
Varzim 2+ goals
31%
Varzim 3+ goals
10%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
64%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
27%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.09 · 56 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 0.89 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Varzim defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Varzim scores more
38%
level
30%
Sporting CP B scores more
33%

Varzim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Estrela
84'
NelsinhoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Varzim 2 – 0 Sporting CP B

Varzim beat Sporting CP B 2-0 in Segunda Liga on April 29, 2018.

Goals: Estrela (22'), Nelsinho (84' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club (Póvoa de Varzim).