Sporting CP B 2–0 Varzim: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Sporting CP B

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varzim

Luís Gomes 90+1'

João Muniz 75'

5/4/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 12CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sporting CP B46%

×Draw28%

Varzim26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchVarzim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

Sporting CP B

1.35

Varzim

0.94

Sporting CP B creates 44% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

0.95

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Varzim

0.92

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Varzim

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Varzim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

74%

Sporting CP B or Varzim

72%

Draw or Varzim

54%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

22%

Varzim wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

74%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

39%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

15%

Varzim 1+ goals

61%

Varzim 2+ goals

24%

Varzim 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

64%

Varzim (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Varzim defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Varzim attack 0.92 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

46%

level

28%

Varzim scores more

26%

Sporting CP B at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Rebelo

20'

R. Oliveira

56'

Henrique Arreiol← Alexandre Brito

58'

S. Blopa

69'

Diogo Sequeira← Hircane Graça

69'

A. Gomes← Cláudio Araújo

69'

Ivanildo Nhaga← M. Moshood

75'

Gabriel Silva← Rafael Nel

75'

João Muniz

81'

Nuno Pereira← Rodrigo Rego

81'

Gonçalo Pimenta← Joel Monteiro

86'

F. Goncalves

89'

Lucas Taibo← Mauro Couto

89'

Luís Gomes← Afonso Moreira

90+5'

L. Gomes

90+1'

Luís Gomes

Sporting

Varzim

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: João Gião

56'▲Henrique Arreiol←▼Alexandre Brito

75'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Rafael Nel

89'▲Lucas Taibo←▼Mauro Couto

89'▲Luís Gomes←▼Afonso Moreira

Sporting CP B substitutes

ArreiolSilvaTaiboGomes

Manager: Vítor Paneira

69'▲Diogo Sequeira←▼Hircane Graça

69'▲A. Gomes←▼Cláudio Araújo

69'▲Ivanildo Nhaga←▼M. Moshood

81'▲Nuno Pereira←▼Rodrigo Rego

81'▲Gonçalo Pimenta←▼Joel Monteiro

Varzim substitutes

SequeiraGomesNhagaPereiraPimenta