Varbergs BoIS FC 4–2 Landskrona BoIS

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

K. Appiah Nyarko 19'

O. Alfonsi 17', 11'

M. Tokich 5'

K. Fosuhene Asare 90'

C. Stark 82'

5/22/2025

Superettan · Round 9Paskbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC42%

×Draw24%

Landskrona BoIS34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.40

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.57

Landskrona BoIS

1.40

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.54

creates per match

1.85

0.94

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.54

Landskrona BoIS

1.85

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

0.94

Landskrona BoIS

1.60

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC-0.32scores less

Landskrona BoIS-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

66%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Landskrona BoIS

76%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

58%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

21%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

79%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

46%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

21%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

75%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

41%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

55%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.60 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.54 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.85 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

42%

level

24%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

34%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

O. Alfonsi

Varbergs BoIS FC · F

8.6

Match Events

5'

M. Tokich↳ O. Alfonsi

11'

O. Alfonsi↳ K. Appiah Nyarko

17'

O. Alfonsi↳ K. Appiah Nyarko

19'

K. Appiah Nyarko↳ M. Tokich

28'

G. Bruzelius← M. Bjorkqvist

28'

A. Egnell← H. Nasstrom

28'

K. Fosuhene Asare← R. Rahmani

46'

C. Capotondi← G. Weststrom

52'

Gustaf Bruzelius

62'

I. Vidjeskog← K. Appiah Nyarko

63'

A. Winbo← M. Tokich

69'

C. Stark← E. Sylisufaj

71'

Erion Sadiku

73'

N. A. Mohudin← L. Shabani

73'

A. Wiklund← E. Hellman

82'

C. Stark↳ A. Egnell

84'

H. Zackrisson← O. Alfonsi

90'

K. Fosuhene Asare↳ G. Bruzelius

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsLandskrona

Overview

24%Possession76%

14Total Shots11

2.76Expected Goals (xG)0.83

2Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target4

3Off Target3

4Blocked3

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

24%Possession76%

234Total Passes661

178Accurate Passes584

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2