Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Landskrona BoIS

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

I. Bjerkebo 66'

V. Sundberg 64'

7/22/2024

Superettan · Round 15Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC43%

×Draw24%

Landskrona BoIS33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.38

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.62

Landskrona BoIS

1.38

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.64

creates per match

1.85

0.91

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.64

Landskrona BoIS

1.85

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

0.91

Landskrona BoIS

1.60

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC-0.44scores less

Landskrona BoIS-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

67%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Landskrona BoIS

76%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

57%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

22%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

80%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

48%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

22%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

75%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

40%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

57%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 10 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.60 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.64 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.85 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

43%

level

24%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

33%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Andersson

Varbergs BoIS FC · G

8.9

Match Events

55'

62'

64'

66'

68'

A. Yusuf← K. Appiah Nyarko

78'

A. Bitiqi← A. Johansson

83'

Vincent Sundberg

84'

J. Strid← S. Burakovsky

89'

N. Dahlström← L. Frigell Jansson

89'

E. Lindman← M. Nilsson

90+3'

Oskar Sverrisson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsLandskrona

Overview

17%Possession83%

6Total Shots21

0.59Expected Goals (xG)1.92

1Corners10

16Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots21

4On Target9

1Off Target8

1Blocked4

5Inside Box9

1Outside Box12

Passing

17%Possession83%

150Total Passes802

99Accurate Passes734

66%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS

Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in Superettan on July 22, 2024.

Goals: V. Sundberg (64'), I. Bjerkebo (66').

Landskrona BoIS controlled possession (83%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS