Landskrona BoIS 2–1 Varbergs BoIS FC

Landskrona BoIS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Varbergs BoIS FC

M. Bjorkqvist 78'

C. Stark 31'

L. Shabani 27'

10/6/2025

Superettan · Round 26Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Landskrona BoIS46%

×Draw23%

Varbergs BoIS FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.39

Landskrona BoIS

1.73

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.39

Landskrona BoIS creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.68

creates per match

1.50

1.28

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.68

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.50

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.28

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.77

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Landskrona BoIS-0.21scores less

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

69%

Landskrona BoIS or Varbergs BoIS FC

77%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

54%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

82%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

52%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

75%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

40%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

59%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.68 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.50 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

46%

level

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

31%

Landskrona BoIS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Bjorkqvist

Landskrona BoIS · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

Isak Vidjeskog

27'

L. Shabani↳ E. Tellgren

31'

C. Stark↳ R. Rahmani

46'

E. Sadiku← A. Winbo

62'

J. Jonasson Westermark← M. Tokich

63'

Gustaf Bruzelius

64'

Christian Stark

65'

Jesper Jonasson Westermark

70'

Max Nilsson

72'

C. Kabuye← N. A. Mohudin

73'

O. Edlund← I. Vidjeskog

75'

M. Mohamed← C. Capotondi

78'

M. Bjorkqvist↳ M. Nilsson

80'

Niklas Dahlström

81'

G. Weststrom← M. Nilsson

81'

X. Odhiambo← C. Stark

83'

H. Zackrisson← N. Dahlstrom

90+6'

Max'Med Omar Mohamed

90'

Emil Hellman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LandskronaVarbergs

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots10

2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.39

5Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots10

9On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked4

11Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

522Total Passes397

447Accurate Passes324

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Superettan: Landskrona BoIS 2–1 Varbergs BoIS FC

Landskrona BoIS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 in Superettan on October 6, 2025.

Goals: L. Shabani (27'), C. Stark (31'), M. Bjorkqvist (78').

Landskrona BoIS controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.

Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Landskrona BoIS 2–1 Varbergs BoIS FC