Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Varbergs BoIS FC31%
AIK Stockholm43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AIK Stockholm creates 20% more chances
Season form · 61 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Varbergs BoIS FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches
AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19
AIK Stockholm attack 1.29 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
AIK Stockholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
AIK Stockholm
IFK Norrkoping
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Ostersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Varbergs BoIS FC host AIK Stockholm on Monday, 17 July 2023 at 17:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 17, 2023.
Goals: S. Papagiannopoulos (37'), M. Thychosen (45+2'), N. Dahlström (83').
AIK Stockholm controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 12.
The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.