AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Allsvenskan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
AIK Stockholm53%
Varbergs BoIS FC22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AIK Stockholm creates 69% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AIK Stockholm ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches
Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AIK Stockholm attack 1.52 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
AIK Stockholm at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
AIK Stockholm substitutes
Varbergs BoIS FC substitutes
AIK Stockholm
IFK Norrkoping
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Ostersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
AIK Stockholm host Varbergs BoIS FC on Wednesday, 20 April 2022 at 17:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC
AIK Stockholm beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 20, 2022.
Goals: S. Larsson (27' pen).
AIK Stockholm controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 4.
The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.