AIK Stockholm 3–0 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Varbergs BoIS FC

I. Pittas 59' (pen), 25'

Rui Modesto 32'

8/28/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 21Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

AIK Stockholm53%

×Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

AIK Stockholm

1.69

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.00

AIK Stockholm creates 69% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 61 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

0.80

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.52

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.21

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

0.80

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

78%

AIK Stockholm or Varbergs BoIS FC

76%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

47%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

29%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

82%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

50%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

63%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

26%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

71%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.52 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

53%

level

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

22%

AIK Stockholm at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

I. Pittas

AIK Stockholm · F

8.6

Match Events

25'

I. Pittas↳ A. Milošević

32'

Rui Modesto

39'

Maxime Anne Marie Sainte

59'

I. PittasPenalty

63'

Vinícius Nogueira← O. Silverholt

63'

L. Frigell Jansson← H. Zackrisson

69'

M. Thychosen← J. Haliti

71'

Yassine El Ouatki

79'

V. Rönnberg← Y. El Ouatki

79'

D. Alfonsi← Filipe Sissé

81'

A. Ali← B. Hussein

81'

J. Kusi-Asare← O. Faraj

85'

K. Hoven← M. Sainte

90+3'

Diego Alfonsi

90+2'

A. Keita← A. Milošević

90+2'

A. Björnström← E. Otieno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKVarbergs

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots8

3.23Expected Goals (xG)0.71

3Corners3

8Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots8

9On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

15Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

462Total Passes399

365Accurate Passes311

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls19

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1