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Vaprus vs K-Järve JK Järve — Cup 2020

Vaprus
Vaprusadvanced
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
8/1/2023CupCup · Round of 64Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vaprus93%
×Draw5%
K-Järve JK Järve2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
4.63
K-Järve JK Järve
0.69

Vaprus creates 571% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vaprus
6.75
K-Järve JK Järve
1.00

allows per match

Vaprus
0.38
K-Järve JK Järve
2.50

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
98%
Vaprus or K-Järve JK Järve
95%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
7%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
83%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
99%
Vaprus 2+ goals
93%
Vaprus 3+ goals
80%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
50%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
15%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
98%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 6.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 6.75 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 4.63

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.00 + Vaprus defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Vaprus scores more
93%
level
5%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
2%

Vaprus at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vaprus 6–1 K-Järve JK Järve

Vaprus beat K-Järve JK Järve 6-1 in Cup on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.