Vaprus 7–0 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

Vaprus

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

V. Vallik 87', 86'

R. Tiismaa 65', 10'

R. Limberg 29'

E. Veensalu 18', 16'

6/13/2020

Esiliiga A · Round 5Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vaprus72%

×Draw16%

K-Järve JK Järve12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaprusExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.02

Vaprus

2.71

K-Järve JK Järve

1.02

Vaprus creates 166% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 68 away

2.34

creates per match

0.96

1.07

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Vaprus

2.34

K-Järve JK Järve

0.96

allows per match

Vaprus

1.07

K-Järve JK Järve

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw

88%

Vaprus or K-Järve JK Järve

84%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

28%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+

51%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals

93%

Vaprus 2+ goals

75%

Vaprus 3+ goals

50%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

64%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

27%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)

86%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.07 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 2.34 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.71

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Vaprus defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vaprus scores more

72%

level

16%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

12%

Vaprus at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

5'

10'

16'

18'

29'

29'

37'

43'

45'

46'

51'

53'

55'

60'

65'

69'

69'

R. Svidovitš← D. Tsõgankov

74'

H. Tali← H. Hanson

79'

A. Bogatõrjov← A. Makarov

81'

A. Lepik← R. Tiismaa

86'

V. Vallik

87'

V. Vallik

Vaprus

K-Järve

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Limberg

▼

Saarts

⚽2

▼

Tiismaa

Manager: T. Midenbritt

5'▲R. Mõtt←▼U. Kõrre

43'▲G. Grahv←▼R. Limberg

69'▲V. Vallik←▼K. Saarts

74'▲H. Tali←▼H. Hanson

81'▲A. Lepik←▼R. Tiismaa

Vaprus substitutes

MõttGrahvVallikTaliLepikStratiTiidermann

Manager: A. Škaleta

46'▲V. Gusev←▼R. Travkin

69'▲R. Svidovitš←▼D. Tsõgankov

79'▲A. Bogatõrjov←▼A. Makarov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

GusevSvidovitšBogatõrjovSalmusMossin

Match Recap: Vaprus vs K-Järve JK Järve

Vaprus beat K-Järve JK Järve 7-0 in Esiliiga A on June 13, 2020.

Goals: R. Tiismaa (10', 65'), E. Veensalu (16', 18'), R. Limberg (29'), V. Vallik (86', 87').

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.

Vaprus vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vaprus vs K-Järve JK Järve