Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

K-Järve JK Järve vs Vaprus — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Vaprus
Vaprus
9/22/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 30Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve18%
×Draw20%
Vaprus63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.10
Vaprus
2.24

Vaprus creates 104% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 28 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.16
Vaprus
1.79

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.68
Vaprus
1.04

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Vaprus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
37%
K-Järve JK Järve or Vaprus
80%
Draw or Vaprus
82%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
6%
Vaprus wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
67%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
30%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
10%
Vaprus 1+ goals
89%
Vaprus 2+ goals
65%
Vaprus 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
22%
Vaprus (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 68 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.16 + Vaprus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vaprus attack 1.79 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
18%
level
20%
Vaprus scores more
63%

Vaprus at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: K-Järve JK Järve 1–3 Vaprus

Vaprus beat K-Järve JK Järve 3-1 in Esiliiga A on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve).