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Valladolid vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Valladolid
Valladolid
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
5/2/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37
Big match
45%
Valladolid
model favours
45%30%25%

Mallorca win just 11% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Valladolid45%
×Draw30%
Mallorca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valladolid
1.22
Mallorca
0.83

Valladolid creates 47% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Valladolid
1.52
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Valladolid
0.74
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw
75%
Valladolid or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
55%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+
20%
Mallorca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals
70%
Valladolid 2+ goals
34%
Valladolid 3+ goals
12%
Mallorca 1+ goals
56%
Mallorca 2+ goals
20%
Mallorca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)
64%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.74 · 66 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Valladolid defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valladolid scores more
45%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
25%

Valladolid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Valladolid
LLLWL
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valladolid face Mallorca (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Valladolid hosting Mallorca. Match starts May 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.