Mallorca 2–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valladolid

Darder 49'

Omar Mascarell 28'

Chuky 11'

5/10/2025

La Liga · Round 35Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mallorca54%

×Draw24%

Valladolid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Mallorca

1.71

Valladolid

1.00

Mallorca creates 71% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 8 away

1.26

creates per match

0.79

1.22

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Mallorca

1.26

Valladolid

0.79

allows per match

Mallorca

1.22

Valladolid

2.15

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.22scores more

Valladolid-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

78%

Mallorca or Valladolid

76%

Draw or Valladolid

46%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

30%

Valladolid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

82%

Mallorca 2+ goals

51%

Mallorca 3+ goals

24%

Valladolid 1+ goals

63%

Valladolid 2+ goals

26%

Valladolid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

71%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 42 matches

Valladolid away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.15 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.26 + Valladolid defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Valladolid attack 0.79 + Mallorca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mallorca scores more

54%

level

24%

Valladolid scores more

22%

Mallorca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Greif

Mallorca · G

8.2

Match Events

11'

Chuky↳ Raúl Moro

13'

Cenk Özkaçar

28'

Omar Mascarell↳ Pablo Maffeo

34'

Antonio Raíllo

49'

Darder↳ T. Asano

54'

Cenk ÖzkaçarGoal cancelled

58'

Iván Sánchez← Chuky

58'

F. Grillitsch← A. Candela

66'

Antonio Sánchez← V. Muriqi

66'

C. Larin← T. Asano

74'

D. Machís← Raúl Moro

74'

A. Tuhami← S. Amallah

76'

Mateu Morey← Dani Rodríguez

82'

Marcos André← E. Cömert

85'

Toni Lato← Darder

90+2'

Toni Lato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaValladolid

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots16

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.85

5Corners10

16Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots16

4On Target7

7Off Target6

1Blocked3

8Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

451Total Passes288

383Accurate Passes232

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2