Valladolid 1–2 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mallorca

Iván Sánchez 90+4'

Valery 83'

C. Larin 59'

9/27/2024

La Liga · Round 8Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Valladolid46%

×Draw25%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.20

Valladolid

1.58

Mallorca

1.20

Valladolid creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 46 away

1.43

creates per match

0.93

1.47

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Valladolid

1.43

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Valladolid

1.47

Mallorca

1.74

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.43scores less

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

71%

Valladolid or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

54%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

24%

Mallorca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

79%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Mallorca 1+ goals

70%

Mallorca 2+ goals

34%

Mallorca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

61%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.43 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Valladolid defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valladolid scores more

46%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Valladolid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pablo Maffeo

Mallorca · D

7.6

Match Events

21'

Kike Pérez

26'

Manu Morlanes

51'

Iván Sánchez← D. Machís

51'

Raúl Chasco← Luis Pérez

59'

C. Larin↳ Dani Rodríguez

65'

S. Jurić← Kike Pérez

65'

M. Sylla← Mario Martín

65'

Omar Mascarell← Manu Morlanes

68'

Samuel Costa

72'

Mario Maroto← David Torres

75'

Abdón Prats← C. Larin

75'

Chiquinho← Dani Rodríguez

76'

Abdulay Juma Bah

76'

Valery← Darder

83'

Valery

85'

Eray Cömert

86'

Antonio Sánchez← Robert Navarro

90+4'

Iván Sánchez↳ Mario Maroto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidMallorca

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots17

1.25Expected Goals (xG)2.32

7Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots17

1On Target6

8Off Target8

4Blocked3

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

410Total Passes413

331Accurate Passes326

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-0.49Goals Prevented-0.49

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1