Valladolid 3–3 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

Monchu 86'

S. Amallah 68'

Kike Pérez 33'

V. Muriqi 90+4' (pen), 53'

Manu Morlanes 58'

4/9/2023

La Liga · Round 28Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Valladolid46%

×Draw25%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

Valladolid

1.58

Mallorca

1.21

Valladolid creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 41 away

1.43

creates per match

0.95

1.47

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Valladolid

1.43

Mallorca

0.95

allows per match

Valladolid

1.47

Mallorca

1.74

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.43scores less

Mallorca-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

71%

Valladolid or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

54%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

23%

Mallorca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

79%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Mallorca 1+ goals

70%

Mallorca 2+ goals

34%

Mallorca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

61%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.43 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mallorca attack 0.95 + Valladolid defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valladolid scores more

46%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Valladolid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Muriqi

Mallorca · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Abdón Prats

10'

Roque Mesa

33'

Kike Pérez↳ Lucas Rosa

38'

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

45+1'

Martin Valjent

53'

V. Muriqi↳ Pablo Maffeo

56'

Lucas Rosa

58'

Manu Morlanes

64'

Jaume Costa

66'

S. Amallah← Lucas Rosa

66'

Escudero← Óscar Plano

66'

Iván Sánchez← Roque Mesa

68'

S. Amallah↳ C. Larin

73'

Manu Morlanes

74'

C. Grenier← Manu Morlanes

74'

Antonio Sánchez← A. Ndiaye

80'

Monchu← Kike Pérez

80'

Kenedy← G. Plata

85'

Ángel← Lee Kang-In

86'

Monchu↳ Kenedy

90+3'

Cyle Larin

90+1'

Vedat MuriqiPenalty confirmed

90+5'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

90+4'

V. MuriqiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidMallorca

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots14

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.80

1Corners2

13Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots14

6On Target6

4Off Target4

0Blocked4

8Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

464Total Passes279

396Accurate Passes208

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls20

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0