Valladolid 1–1 Malaga: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga

Peter Federico 5'

A. Nino 59'

11/29/2025

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Valladolid37%

×Draw24%

Malaga39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.53

Valladolid

1.48

Malaga

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.72

creates per match

2.14

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Valladolid

1.72

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Valladolid

0.92

Malaga

1.25

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.12scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

61%

Valladolid or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

63%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

17%

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

77%

Valladolid 2+ goals

43%

Valladolid 3+ goals

19%

Malaga 1+ goals

78%

Malaga 2+ goals

45%

Malaga 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

49%

Malaga (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.72 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Malaga attack 2.14 + Valladolid defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valladolid scores more

37%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

39%

Malaga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Peter Federico

Valladolid · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

24'

49'

56'

56'

J. Latasa← Marcos Andre

59'

A. Nino↳ V. Garcia

65'

Chuki← M. Lachuer

65'

S. Biuk← A. Ndiaye

68'

D. Sanchez← V. Garcia

68'

R. Rodriguez← D. Lorenzo

71'

Chupe← J. Munoz

74'

Julien Ponceau

77'

J. Lobete← A. Nino

81'

I. Alani← J. Ponceau

81'

S. Canos← Peter Federico

90+3'

Ibrahim Alani

90+1'

Ibrahim Alani

90+3'

Ibrahim Alani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidMalaga

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots5

7Corners2

19Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots5

6On Target3

9Off Target1

6Blocked1

15Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

387Total Passes443

301Accurate Passes364

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Valladolid vs Malaga

Valladolid and Malaga drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 29, 2025.

Goals: Peter Federico (5'), A. Nino (59').

Malaga controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valladolid vs Malaga