Malaga 2–2 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Valladolid

Vadillo 49'

Brandon Thomas 4'

S. Weissman 63', 59'

4/9/2022

Segunda División · Round 35Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Malaga43%

×Draw28%

Valladolid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.99

Malaga

1.28

Valladolid

0.99

Malaga creates 29% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 67 away

1.17

creates per match

1.06

0.91

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

57%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Valladolid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

72%

Malaga 2+ goals

37%

Malaga 3+ goals

14%

Valladolid 1+ goals

63%

Valladolid 2+ goals

26%

Valladolid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

60%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga scores more

43%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

29%

Malaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Monchu

Valladolid · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

Brandon Thomas↳ Febas

36'

40'

43'

46'

46'

Antoñín Cortés← Andrés Caro

49'

Vadillo

56'

G. Plata← Álvaro Aguado

59'

S. Weissman↳ Monchu

63'

Adrián← Vadillo

63'

Paulino← Brandon Thomas

63'

S. Weissman↳ G. Plata

68'

Sergio León← S. Weissman

68'

A. Tuhami← Toni Villa

69'

Ramón Enríquez← Febas

79'

Jon Morcillo← Nacho Martínez

79'

86'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaValladolid

Overview

37%Possession63%

16Total Shots19

4Corners7

21Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots19

4On Target8

7Off Target5

5Blocked6

11Inside Box13

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

279Total Passes471

219Accurate Passes411

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3