Malaga 3–3 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Valladolid

Chupe 48', 11' (pen)

C. Dotor 14'

J. Latasa 90'

Chupe 65' (OG)

Peter Federico 45'

3/7/2026

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Malaga43%

×Draw28%

Valladolid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.99

Malaga

1.28

Valladolid

0.99

Malaga creates 29% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 67 away

1.17

creates per match

1.06

0.91

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

57%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Valladolid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

72%

Malaga 2+ goals

37%

Malaga 3+ goals

14%

Valladolid 1+ goals

63%

Valladolid 2+ goals

26%

Valladolid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

60%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga scores more

43%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

29%

Malaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Dotor

Malaga · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

ChupePenalty

14'

C. Dotor

29'

Francisco Montero

37'

I. Garriel← C. Clerc

45'

Peter Federico↳ S. Juric

46'

A. Recio← J. Montero

48'

Chupe↳ V. Garcia

50'

ChupeteGoal confirmed

56'

Victor Garcia Marin

59'

J. Gabilondo← J. Munoz

64'

J. Latasa← S. Canos

64'

V. A. Meseguer Cavas← J. Ponceau

65'

ChupeOwn goal

66'

Ramón Martínez

73'

A. Nino← Chupe

73'

R. Rodriguez← C. Dotor

84'

S. Biuk← Peter Federico

84'

85'

88'

90+14'

90+1'

90+13'

90+7'

90+6'

90'

J. Latasa↳ Chuki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaValladolid

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots17

0Corners9

15Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots17

6On Target6

3Off Target5

1Blocked6

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

368Total Passes354

303Accurate Passes299

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls21

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2