Valladolid 3–1 Almeria: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Almeria

J. Latasa 90' (pen)

M. Maroto 90'

Marcos Andre 21'

S. Arribas 73' (pen)

9/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Valladolid45%

×Draw27%

Almeria28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Valladolid

1.39

Almeria

1.03

Valladolid creates 35% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 131 away

1.52

creates per match

1.29

0.77

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Valladolid

1.52

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Valladolid

0.77

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

72%

Valladolid or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

55%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

22%

Almeria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

75%

Valladolid 2+ goals

40%

Valladolid 3+ goals

16%

Almeria 1+ goals

64%

Almeria 2+ goals

28%

Almeria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

62%

Almeria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 65 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Almeria attack 1.29 + Valladolid defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valladolid scores more

45%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

28%

Valladolid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marcos Andre

Valladolid · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

Guilherme Fernandes

13'

Adrián EmbarbaMissed penalty

14'

Nélson Monte

21'

Marcos Andre

29'

Federico BoniniGoal cancelled

37'

46'

56'

56'

62'

Peter Federico← A. Ndiaye

64'

A. Puigmal← A. Embarba

71'

Víctor Meseguer

73'

M. Luna← D. Chirino

73'

S. ArribasPenalty

74'

Thalys← Leo Baptistao

75'

Trilli← I. Alejo

76'

J. Latasa← Marcos Andre

77'

Peter González

79'

A. Hernandez← N. Monte

84'

M. Maroto← J. Ponceau

84'

I. Alani← V. A. Meseguer Cavas

89'

Mario MarotoPenalty confirmed

90+7'

Juanmi Latasa

90+5'

Stefan Džodić

90+1'

Federico Bonini

90'

J. LatasaPenalty

90'

M. Maroto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidAlmeria

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots14

8Corners3

28Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

8On Target3

1Off Target7

2Blocked4

11Inside Box7

0Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

295Total Passes465

192Accurate Passes356

65%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

28Fouls13

5Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2

Segunda División: Valladolid 3–1 Almeria

Valladolid beat Almeria 3-1 in Segunda División on September 13, 2025.

Goals: Marcos Andre (21'), S. Arribas (73' pen), J. Latasa (90' pen), M. Maroto (90').

Almeria controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Valladolid 3–1 Almeria