Valladolid 1–0 Almeria: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almeria

S. Weissman 90+3'

9/5/2022

La Liga · Round 4Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Valladolid46%

×Draw25%

Almeria29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Valladolid

1.58

Almeria

1.19

Valladolid creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 21 away

1.02

creates per match

1.10

1.27

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Valladolid

1.02

Almeria

1.10

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Almeria

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

71%

Valladolid or Almeria

75%

Draw or Almeria

54%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

24%

Almeria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

79%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Almeria 1+ goals

70%

Almeria 2+ goals

33%

Almeria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

62%

Almeria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.02 + Almeria defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.58

Almeria attack 1.10 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valladolid scores more

46%

level

25%

Almeria scores more

29%

Valladolid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Joaquín Fernández

Valladolid · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

Sergio Akieme

41'

César de la Hoz

59'

G. Plata← Óscar Plano

59'

Adri Embarba← Dyego Sousa

66'

Monchu← Álvaro Aguado

66'

S. Weissman← Sergi Guardiola

76'

Kaiky← César de la Hoz

77'

Adrián Embarba

77'

M. Milovanović← Léo Baptistão

78'

Sergio León← Iván Sánchez

78'

J. Narváez← Roque Mesa

80'

Kaiky

83'

Portillo← L. Ramazani

90+2'

90+2'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidAlmeria

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots12

2Corners8

11Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target1

7Off Target3

1Blocked8

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

362Total Passes323

283Accurate Passes242

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards6

6Offsides4