Valladolid 2–2 Almeria: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Almeria

Toni Villa 48'

Roque Mesa 23'

Rodrigo Ely 88'

L. Ramazani 20'

4/16/2022

Segunda División · Round 36Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Valladolid45%

×Draw27%

Almeria28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Valladolid

1.39

Almeria

1.03

Valladolid creates 35% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 131 away

1.52

creates per match

1.29

0.77

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Valladolid

1.52

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Valladolid

0.77

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

72%

Valladolid or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

55%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

22%

Almeria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

75%

Valladolid 2+ goals

40%

Valladolid 3+ goals

16%

Almeria 1+ goals

64%

Almeria 2+ goals

28%

Almeria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

62%

Almeria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 65 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Almeria attack 1.29 + Valladolid defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valladolid scores more

45%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

28%

Valladolid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

G. Plata

Valladolid · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

Josema Sánchez← Javier Sánchez

20'

L. Ramazani

21'

Sergio Akieme Rodríguez

23'

Roque Mesa↳ Monchu

24'

Toni Villa

46'

Arnau Puigmal← Portillo

46'

Álex Centelles← Sergio Akieme

48'

Toni Villa↳ S. Weissman

57'

Roque Mesa

58'

Samuel Costa

59'

Álvaro Aguado← Iván Sánchez

59'

A. Appiah← Samú Costa

73'

Íñigo Eguaras

73'

Curro Sánchez← L. Robertone

74'

Cristo González← Monchu

75'

S. Janko← Toni Villa

75'

Pablo Hervías← Luis Pérez

77'

Arnau Puigmal

88'

Rodrigo Ely

89'

César de la Hoz← L. Ramazani

90+6'

Umar Sadiq

90'

César de la Hoz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidAlmeria

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots11

6Corners8

10Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked5

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

372Total Passes283

309Accurate Passes209

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

5Offsides2

Segunda División: Valladolid 2–2 Almeria

Valladolid and Almeria drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 16, 2022.

Goals: L. Ramazani (20'), Roque Mesa (23'), Toni Villa (48'), Rodrigo Ely (88').

Valladolid controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Valladolid 2–2 Almeria