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Valerenga vs Stabaek — 1. Division 2018

Valerenga
Valerenga
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Stabaek
Stabaek
4/14/20241. Division1. Division · Round 3Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valerenga59%
×Draw19%
Stabaek22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
2.40
Stabaek
1.41

Valerenga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

Valerenga
3.13
Stabaek
1.81

allows per match

Valerenga
1.00
Stabaek
1.66

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
78%
Valerenga or Stabaek
81%
Draw or Stabaek
41%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
38%
Stabaek wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
91%
Valerenga 2+ goals
69%
Valerenga 3+ goals
42%
Stabaek 1+ goals
76%
Stabaek 2+ goals
41%
Stabaek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
73%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 3.13 + Stabaek defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.40

Stabaek attack 1.81 + Valerenga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Valerenga scores more
59%
level
19%
Stabaek scores more
22%

Valerenga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Valerenga 1–3 Stabaek

Stabaek beat Valerenga 3-1 in 1. Division on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.