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Stabaek vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
CANC
00:00
Valerenga
Valerenga
9/25/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stabaek43%
×Draw26%
Valerenga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.48
Valerenga
1.23

Stabaek creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 104 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.29
Valerenga
1.22

allows per match

Stabaek
1.23
Valerenga
1.67

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Valerenga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Valerenga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
68%
Stabaek or Valerenga
74%
Draw or Valerenga
57%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
21%
Valerenga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
77%
Stabaek 2+ goals
43%
Stabaek 3+ goals
19%
Valerenga 1+ goals
71%
Valerenga 2+ goals
35%
Valerenga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
58%
Valerenga (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 66 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.29 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valerenga attack 1.22 + Stabaek defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stabaek scores more
43%
level
26%
Valerenga scores more
32%

Stabaek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Valerenga — Match Preview

Stabaek face Valerenga on September 25, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Valerenga at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.