Valerenga 0–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

11/12/2023

Eliteserien · Round 28Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Valerenga51%

×Draw23%

Stabaek26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.25

Valerenga

1.84

Stabaek

1.25

Valerenga creates 47% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 67 away

1.80

creates per match

1.15

1.34

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Valerenga

1.80

Stabaek

1.15

allows per match

Valerenga

1.34

Stabaek

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

74%

Valerenga or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

49%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

29%

Stabaek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

84%

Valerenga 2+ goals

55%

Valerenga 3+ goals

28%

Stabaek 1+ goals

71%

Stabaek 2+ goals

36%

Stabaek 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

66%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.34 · 103 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.80 + Stabaek defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Stabaek attack 1.15 + Valerenga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Valerenga scores more

51%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

26%

Valerenga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff