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Valerenga vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Valerenga
Valerenga
CANC
18:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
5/16/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 8Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Valerenga44%
×Draw22%
Stabaek34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
1.88
Stabaek
1.63

Valerenga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Valerenga
1.61
Stabaek
1.63

allows per match

Valerenga
1.64
Stabaek
2.15

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more
Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
66%
Valerenga or Stabaek
78%
Draw or Stabaek
56%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
24%
Stabaek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
85%
Valerenga 2+ goals
56%
Valerenga 3+ goals
29%
Stabaek 1+ goals
80%
Stabaek 2+ goals
48%
Stabaek 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
56%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valerenga scores more
44%
level
22%
Stabaek scores more
34%

Valerenga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valerenga host Stabaek

May 16, 2021: Valerenga take on Stabaek in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valerenga host Stabaek at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.