Valerenga 2–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Stabaek

M. Vilhjálmsson 72' (pen)

H. Shala 16'

O. Edvardsen 40'

L. Kassi 38'

6/21/2020

Eliteserien · Round 2Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Valerenga44%

×Draw22%

Stabaek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.63

Valerenga

1.88

Stabaek

1.63

Valerenga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

1.61

creates per match

1.63

1.64

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Valerenga

1.61

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

Stabaek

2.15

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

66%

Valerenga or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

56%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

24%

Stabaek wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

85%

Valerenga 2+ goals

56%

Valerenga 3+ goals

29%

Stabaek 1+ goals

80%

Stabaek 2+ goals

48%

Stabaek 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

56%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valerenga scores more

44%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

34%

Valerenga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Kassi

Stabaek · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

28'

32'

38'

40'

42'

55'

55'

62'

62'

O. Sahraoui← B. Finne

68'

Felix Horn Myhre

69'

Aron Dønnum

72'

M. VilhjálmssonPenalty

75'

R. Gall← T. Lumanza

77'

Mats Solheim

79'

K. Hansen← O. Edvardsen

81'

Emil Bohinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaStabaek

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots12

3Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

452Total Passes405

374Accurate Passes320

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1