Valerenga 0–2 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rosenborg

E. K. Ceide 66'

M. Broholm 2'

4/21/2025

Eliteserien · Round 3Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Valerenga42%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.52

Valerenga

1.70

Rosenborg

1.52

Valerenga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.58

creates per match

1.33

1.72

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Valerenga

1.58

Rosenborg

1.33

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Rosenborg

1.81

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.42scores more

Rosenborg-0.07on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

65%

Valerenga or Rosenborg

77%

Draw or Rosenborg

58%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

22%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

82%

Valerenga 2+ goals

51%

Valerenga 3+ goals

24%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

78%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

45%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

55%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.72 · 21 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.58 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rosenborg attack 1.33 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valerenga scores more

42%

level

23%

Rosenborg scores more

35%

Valerenga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Tangvik

Rosenborg · G

9.3

Match Events

2'

M. Broholm↳ E. K. Ceide

37'

Ambina Fidèle Brice

66'

E. K. Ceide↳ U. Jenssen

69'

Adrian Nilsen Pereira

71'

M. Rijks← M. Brajanac

71'

P. Strand← E. Sorensen

71'

O. Saeter← E. K. Ceide

71'

O. Selnaes← S. Nypan

76'

E. Hagen← F. Ambina

84'

S. Sjovold← C. Lange

84'

M. Zeidan← S. Vaananen

88'

Marius Sivertsen Broholm

90'

E. Reitan← A. Pereira

90'

J. Reitan-Sunde← M. Broholm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaRosenborg

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots11

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.40

4Corners5

15Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots11

9On Target4

6Off Target4

2Blocked3

11Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

467Total Passes472

397Accurate Passes403

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1