Rosenborg 0–2 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

I. Nasberg 63'

C. Lange 58'

3/22/2026

Eliteserien · Round 2Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Rosenborg49%

×Draw24%

Valerenga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.18

Rosenborg

1.68

Valerenga

1.18

Rosenborg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.18

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.74

Valerenga

1.18

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.18

Valerenga

1.61

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Valerenga-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

73%

Rosenborg or Valerenga

76%

Draw or Valerenga

51%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

26%

Valerenga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

81%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

50%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

24%

Valerenga 1+ goals

69%

Valerenga 2+ goals

33%

Valerenga 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

65%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.74 + Valerenga defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Valerenga attack 1.18 + Rosenborg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rosenborg scores more

49%

level

24%

Valerenga scores more

27%

Rosenborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Olsen

Valerenga · D

8.9

Match Events

58'

C. Lange↳ K. Finnsson

60'

L. Haren← F. Thorvaldsen

60'

P. Strand← E. Sorensen

60'

O. Saeter← M. Grundetjern

63'

65'

65'

67'

72'

O. Selnaes← I. Fossum

78'

Lucas Haren

78'

G. Rajkovic←

85'

Aslak Fonn Witry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgValerenga

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots10

1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.79

16Corners6

9Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots10

1On Target6

5Off Target4

7Blocked0

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

505Total Passes329

422Accurate Passes245

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

9Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1