Rosenborg 1–0 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

I. Fossum 86'

11/9/2025

Eliteserien · Round 28Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Rosenborg50%

×Draw24%

Valerenga26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Rosenborg

1.71

Valerenga

1.15

Rosenborg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.75

creates per match

1.15

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.75

Valerenga

1.15

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.15

Valerenga

1.67

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Rosenborg-0.03on par

Valerenga-0.03on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

74%

Rosenborg or Valerenga

76%

Draw or Valerenga

50%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

27%

Valerenga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

82%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

51%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

24%

Valerenga 1+ goals

68%

Valerenga 2+ goals

32%

Valerenga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

66%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 29 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.75 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Valerenga attack 1.15 + Rosenborg defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rosenborg scores more

50%

level

24%

Valerenga scores more

26%

Rosenborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Fossum

Rosenborg · M

8.3

Match Events

34'

Ambina Fidèle BriceCard upgrade

35'

38'

40'

45+2'

61'

E. Hagen← E. Sorensen

71'

H. Sjatil← V. Hedenstad

71'

K. Tshiembe← M. Grundetjern

71'

77'

86'

90+6'

90+3'

Elias Kristoffersen Hagen

90+4'

T. Dahl← U. Jenssen

90+1'

P. Meliga← P. Strand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgValerenga

Overview

75%Possession25%

21Total Shots5

2.04Expected Goals (xG)0.38

11Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots5

5On Target2

9Off Target2

7Blocked1

14Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

693Total Passes230

622Accurate Passes158

90%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–0 Valerenga

Rosenborg beat Valerenga 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 9, 2025.

Goals: I. Fossum (86').

Rosenborg controlled possession (75%) and registered 21 shots to 5.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–0 Valerenga