Valerenga 2–3 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Molde

F. Ambina 42'

F. Thorvaldsen 23'

F. Gulbrandsen 84'

D. Daga 80'

M. Eikrem 7'

6/22/2025

Eliteserien · Round 10Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Valerenga37%

×Draw24%

Molde39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Valerenga

1.48

Molde

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

1.39

1.70

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Valerenga

1.57

Molde

1.39

allows per match

Valerenga

1.70

Molde

1.40

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.38scores more

Molde-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

61%

Valerenga or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

63%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

17%

Molde wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

77%

Valerenga 2+ goals

43%

Valerenga 3+ goals

19%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

45%

Molde 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

48%

Molde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Molde away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.57 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Molde attack 1.39 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more

37%

level

24%

Molde scores more

39%

Molde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eikrem

Molde · M

9.7

Match Events

7'

M. Eikrem↳ E. Breivik

23'

F. Thorvaldsen↳ C. Lange

42'

F. Ambina↳ E. Sorensen

46'

52'

58'

60'

61'

P. Strand← S. Sjovold

65'

M. Bjornbak← C. Oyvann

65'

J. Abdullai← C. Zady

71'

M. Riisnaes← F. Thorvaldsen

71'

H. Bjordal← E. Sorensen

77'

D. Daga← E. Hestad

80'

D. Daga↳ M. Eikrem

84'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ M. Eikrem

86'

M. Kaasa← M. Eikrem

87'

E. Hagen← C. Lange

87'

M. Brajanac← H. Sjatil

90+4'

Emil Breivik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaMolde

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots20

1.84Expected Goals (xG)2.56

5Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots20

7On Target9

2Off Target8

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box9

Passing

42%Possession58%

365Total Passes507

295Accurate Passes425

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Valerenga 2–3 Molde

Molde beat Valerenga 3-2 in Eliteserien on June 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Eikrem (7'), F. Thorvaldsen (23'), F. Ambina (42'), D. Daga (80'), F. Gulbrandsen (84').

Molde controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Valerenga 2–3 Molde