Molde 4–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Valerenga

H. Stenevik 87' (pen)

J. Abdullai 52'

M. Eikrem 45'

E. Hestad 12'

F. Ambina 36'

9/28/2025

Eliteserien · Round 23Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Molde52%

×Draw23%

Valerenga26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.25

Molde

1.86

Valerenga

1.25

Molde creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

2.02

creates per match

1.28

1.22

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Molde

2.02

Valerenga

1.28

allows per match

Molde

1.22

Valerenga

1.71

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more

Valerenga-0.03on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Molde or draw

74%

Molde or Valerenga

77%

Draw or Valerenga

48%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

29%

Valerenga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

84%

Molde 2+ goals

55%

Molde 3+ goals

28%

Valerenga 1+ goals

71%

Valerenga 2+ goals

36%

Valerenga 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

67%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Valerenga defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Valerenga attack 1.28 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Molde scores more

52%

level

23%

Valerenga scores more

26%

Molde at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Abdullai

Molde · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

C. Oyvann← B. Risa

12'

E. Hestad↳ M. Daehli

36'

F. Ambina↳ Vinicius Nogueira

45'

M. Eikrem↳ J. Abdullai

52'

J. Abdullai↳ J. Karlstrom

59'

K. Tshiembe← I. Nasberg

59'

P. Meliga← F. Thorvaldsen

59'

S. Sjovold← P. Strand

62'

C. Zady← M. Daehli

62'

N. Kasanwirjo← E. Hestad

74'

E. Hagen← F. Ambina

80'

I. Amundsen← M. Eikrem

80'

H. Stenevik← J. Abdullai

87'

H. StenevikPenalty

90+1'

Neraysho Kasanwirjo

90+1'

Kevin Tshiembe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeValerenga

Overview

47%Possession53%

21Total Shots16

3.55Expected Goals (xG)0.69

5Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots16

8On Target2

7Off Target7

6Blocked7

13Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

413Total Passes466

353Accurate Passes385

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Eliteserien: Molde 4–1 Valerenga

Molde beat Valerenga 4-1 in Eliteserien on September 28, 2025.

Goals: E. Hestad (12'), F. Ambina (36'), M. Eikrem (45'), J. Abdullai (52'), H. Stenevik (87' pen).

Valerenga controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 21.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 4–1 Valerenga