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Molde vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valerenga
Valerenga
8/19/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Molde51%
×Draw23%
Valerenga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.81
Valerenga
1.21

Molde creates 50% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Molde
1.97
Valerenga
1.23

allows per match

Molde
1.18
Valerenga
1.66

finishing

Molde+0.24scores more
Valerenga-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Valerenga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Molde or draw
74%
Molde or Valerenga
77%
Draw or Valerenga
49%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
29%
Valerenga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
84%
Molde 2+ goals
54%
Molde 3+ goals
27%
Valerenga 1+ goals
70%
Valerenga 2+ goals
34%
Valerenga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
67%
Valerenga (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.97 + Valerenga defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.81

Valerenga attack 1.23 + Molde defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Molde scores more
51%
level
23%
Valerenga scores more
26%

Molde at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. StorevikValerengaValerenga · G
8.0

Match Events

37'
T. Børven← S. Juklerød
39'
Eirik Haugan
62'
E. Hestad← M. Grødem
62'
O. Brynhildsen← V. Berisha
62'
A. Ilić← M. Ofkir
63'
Mathias Løvik
69'
E. Breivik← K. Eriksen
69'
M. Eikrem← E. Kitolano
71'
A. Kiil Olsen← S. Strandberg
74'
Torgeir Børven
80'
M. Linnes← E. Knudtzon
87'
Jacob Storevik
90+7'
Eirik Haugan
90+7'
Eirik Haugan

Possession

70%Molde

Shots

16Molde

Pass accuracy

56%Molde

Statistics

MoldeValerenga
Overview
70%Possession30%
16Total Shots6
0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.24
7Corners1
14Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots6
4On Target1
7Off Target4
5Blocked1
12Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
669Total Passes286
600Accurate Passes206
90%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Molde 0–0 Valerenga

Molde and Valerenga drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on August 19, 2023.

Molde controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.