Valerenga 0–2 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lillestrom

K. Arierhi 90'

M. Karlsbakk 86'

4/19/2026

Eliteserien · Round 5Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Valerenga37%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.65

Valerenga

1.60

Lillestrom

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

1.58

1.72

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Valerenga

1.48

Lillestrom

1.58

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Lillestrom

1.73

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.41scores more

Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

61%

Valerenga or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

63%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

18%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

80%

Valerenga 2+ goals

47%

Valerenga 3+ goals

22%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

49%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

49%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.48 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more

37%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

39%

Lillestrom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Dahlberg

Lillestrom · G

8.0

Match Events

16'

Ivan NäsbergPenalty cancelled

39'

Lars Ranger

45+4'

Ambina Fidèle Brice

45'

Carl Lange

45+6'

Ambina Fidèle BriceCard reviewed

46'

E. Sorensen← F. Ambina

46'

G. Nyheim← E. Kitolano

79'

F. Thorvaldsen← M. Grundetjern

80'

V. Hedenstad← H. Sjatil

80'

C. Jebara← Felix Va

80'

K. Arierhi← T. Olsen

86'

M. Karlsbakk↳ Y. Ibrahimaj

87'

S. Ottesen← Y. Paintsil

90+11'

Aaron Kiil Olsen

90+14'

Pontus Dahlberg

90+11'

Ruben Gabrielsen

90+10'

Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim

90'

Markus Karlsbakk

90'

P. Strand← L. Haren

90+1'

O. T. Holm← M. Westergaard

90+6'

U. Jenssen← S. Drammeh

90'

K. Arierhi↳ G. Nyheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaLillestrom

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots16

1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.71

13Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots16

3On Target6

10Off Target7

5Blocked3

14Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

325Total Passes525

244Accurate Passes435

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.57Goals Prevented0.57

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Valerenga 2-0 in Eliteserien on April 19, 2026.

Goals: M. Karlsbakk (86'), K. Arierhi (90').

Lillestrom controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Lillestrom