Lillestrom 2–0 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valerenga

M. Bolly 69'

M. Roseth 27'

10/22/2023

Eliteserien · Round 25Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Lillestrom48%

×Draw24%

Valerenga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

Lillestrom

1.67

Valerenga

1.22

Lillestrom creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.71

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.71

Valerenga

1.20

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.24

Valerenga

1.64

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.02on par

Valerenga-0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

72%

Lillestrom or Valerenga

76%

Draw or Valerenga

52%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

25%

Valerenga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

50%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

23%

Valerenga 1+ goals

70%

Valerenga 2+ goals

34%

Valerenga 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

63%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 16 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.71 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Valerenga attack 1.20 + Lillestrom defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lillestrom scores more

48%

level

24%

Valerenga scores more

28%

Lillestrom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Garnås

Lillestrom · D

7.7

Match Events

24'

27'

64'

68'

68'

M. Bolly← H. Skogvold

69'

M. Bolly

73'

C. Borchgrevink← E. Hagen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromValerenga

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots6

1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.41

2Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots6

3On Target1

6Off Target5

4Blocked0

4Inside Box6

9Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

380Total Passes370

262Accurate Passes249

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2