Valerenga 3–1 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lillestrom

O. Sahraoui 71', 22'

T. Børven 45+1'

E. Garnås 51'

9/4/2022

Eliteserien · Round 21Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Valerenga39%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.64

Valerenga

1.65

Lillestrom

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.57

creates per match

1.58

1.70

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Valerenga

1.57

Lillestrom

1.58

allows per match

Valerenga

1.70

Lillestrom

1.73

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.38scores more

Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

62%

Valerenga or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

61%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

19%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

81%

Valerenga 2+ goals

49%

Valerenga 3+ goals

23%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

81%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

49%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

50%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.57 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more

39%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

38%

Valerenga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Sahraoui

Valerenga · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

Espen Bjornsen Garnas

22'

O. Sahraoui↳ J. Eng

45+1'

T. Børven↳ O. Sahraoui

51'

E. Garnås

59'

S. Jatta← J. Eng

70'

Colin Rösler

71'

O. Sahraoui↳ T. Christensen

73'

F. Jensen← O. Holm

73'

H. Friðjónsson← C. Rösler

73'

K. Kairinen← L. Ranger

74'

H. Udahl← T. Børven

79'

A. Şimşir← Y. Ibrahimaj

82'

M. Riisnæs← O. Sahraoui

90+2'

H. Skogvold← T. Olsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaLillestrom

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots14

5Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked4

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

465Total Passes370

401Accurate Passes300

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2