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Valerenga vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Valerenga
Valerenga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brann
Brann
A. Ilić 7'
J. Soltvedt 57'
F. Børsting 31'
10/8/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 24Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Valerenga39%
×Draw23%
Brann37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
1.62
Brann
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Valerenga
1.81
Brann
1.55

allows per match

Valerenga
1.60
Brann
1.43

finishing

Valerenga+0.79scores more
Brann+0.31scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
63%
Valerenga or Brann
77%
Draw or Brann
61%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
20%
Brann wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
80%
Valerenga 2+ goals
48%
Valerenga 3+ goals
22%
Brann 1+ goals
79%
Brann 2+ goals
47%
Brann 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
51%
Brann (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Brann away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.81 + Brann defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Brann attack 1.55 + Valerenga defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more
39%
level
23%
Brann scores more
37%

Valerenga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
C. BorchgrevinkValerengaValerenga · M
8.2

Match Events

7'
A. Ilić↳ C. Borchgrevink
31'
F. Børsting↳ B. Finne
57'
J. Soltvedt↳ B. Finne
66'
Bård Finne
68'
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
71'
T. Børven← M. Ofkir
71'
S. Juklerød← E. Hagen
71'
A. Kiil Olsen← E. Bitri
71'
A. Heggebø← S. Kartum
73'
Simen Juklerød
89'
N. Castro← U. Mathisen

Possession

37%Valerenga

Shots

13Valerenga

Pass accuracy

48%Valerenga

Statistics

ValerengaBrann
Overview
37%Possession63%
13Total Shots8
1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.49
3Corners1
7Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots8
1On Target3
7Off Target2
5Blocked3
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box1
Passing
37%Possession63%
350Total Passes611
268Accurate Passes510
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Brann

Brann beat Valerenga 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 8, 2023.

Goals: A. Ilić (7'), F. Børsting (31'), J. Soltvedt (57').

Brann controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.