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Brann vs Valerenga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 1
Valerenga
Valerenga
M. Warming 70'
J. Soltvedt 60', 7'
2/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Campe de Futbol Atalaya Park Hotel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brann62%
×Draw21%
Valerenga17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
2.05
Valerenga
0.98

Brann creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brann
2.50
Valerenga
0.80

allows per match

Brann
1.17
Valerenga
1.60

finishing

Brann+0.00on par
Valerenga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Valerenga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw
83%
Brann or Valerenga
79%
Draw or Valerenga
38%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
38%
Valerenga wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
87%
Brann 2+ goals
61%
Brann 3+ goals
33%
Valerenga 1+ goals
62%
Valerenga 2+ goals
26%
Valerenga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
78%
Valerenga (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Valerenga away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.50 + Valerenga defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Valerenga attack 0.80 + Brann defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brann scores more
62%
level
21%
Valerenga scores more
17%

Brann at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Soltvedt
30'
58'
60'
J. Soltvedt
70'
M. Warming

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Brann 3–0 Valerenga

Brann beat Valerenga 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Soltvedt (7', 60'), M. Warming (70').

The match was played at Campe de Futbol Atalaya Park Hotel in Estepona.