Brann 3–2 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Valerenga

S. Magnusson 66'

F. Myhre 57'

U. Mathisen 14'

E. Sorensen 46'

F. Thorvaldsen 8'

9/13/2025

Eliteserien · Round 21Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Brann55%

×Draw22%

Valerenga23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.14

Brann

1.89

Valerenga

1.14

Brann creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.24

creates per match

1.24

1.03

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Brann

2.24

Valerenga

1.24

allows per match

Brann

1.03

Valerenga

1.54

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Brann-0.24scores less

Valerenga-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw

77%

Brann or Valerenga

78%

Draw or Valerenga

45%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

31%

Valerenga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

85%

Brann 2+ goals

56%

Brann 3+ goals

29%

Valerenga 1+ goals

68%

Valerenga 2+ goals

32%

Valerenga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

71%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.24 + Valerenga defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Valerenga attack 1.24 + Brann defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brann scores more

55%

level

22%

Valerenga scores more

23%

Brann at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Soltvedt

Brann · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

F. Thorvaldsen

9'

Filip Thorvaldsen

14'

U. Mathisen↳ J. Soltvedt

46'

E. Sorensen↳ V. Hedenstad

52'

Fredrik Knudsen

57'

F. Myhre↳ T. Pedersen

59'

N. Castro← E. Gudmundsson

60'

D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen

60'

N. Holm← U. Mathisen

61'

H. Sjatil← V. Hedenstad

66'

S. Magnusson↳ J. Soltvedt

67'

69'

72'

73'

73'

79'

V. Dragsnes← J. Soltvedt

79'

K. Tshiembe← I. Nasberg

79'

S. Sjovold← C. Lange

89'

Kevin Tshiembe

90+3'

Henrik Bjørdal

90+3'

M. Sande← S. Magnusson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannValerenga

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots9

2.47Expected Goals (xG)1.32

11Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots9

11On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

14Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

506Total Passes305

418Accurate Passes212

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4