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Valenciennes vs Paris FC — Coupe de France 2018

Valenciennes
Valenciennesadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Paris FC
Paris FC
1/20/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Valenciennes28%
×Draw24%
Paris FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciennes
1.22
Paris FC
1.66

Paris FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Valenciennes
1.63
Paris FC
1.69

allows per match

Valenciennes
1.63
Paris FC
0.81

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw
52%
Valenciennes or Paris FC
76%
Draw or Paris FC
72%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+
12%
Paris FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals
70%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
34%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
12%
Paris FC 1+ goals
81%
Paris FC 2+ goals
49%
Paris FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)
37%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.63 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.22

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Valenciennes defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valenciennes scores more
28%
level
24%
Paris FC scores more
48%

Paris FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Valenciennes 2–1 Paris FC

Valenciennes beat Paris FC 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.